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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2026-06-12T16:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-06-12T16:36Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/46808/-1
CME Note: Faint partial halo CME seen in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1 with preference to the east and seen more narrow with a brighter bulk and disconnected bulk/shock in STEREO Ahead COR2A with brighter bulk to the east-northeast and shock extending from the southeast to the north in association with a filament eruption near N00E35 erupting near 2026-06-12T16:15Z, best seen in SDO AIA composite imagery using the sum of 211/193/171 Angstroms and as well in GOES SUVI/SDO AIA 304 Angstroms. This CME, seen due east and northeast in COR2A, is seen overlapping the previous CME: 2026-06-12T15:38Z which is seen to the southeast and which is a separate eruption.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-06-15T20:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.9e
Resolution: medium
Ambient settings: a8b1
Ejecta settings: d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrbqs

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:
Radial velocity (km/s):
Longitude (deg):
Latitude (deg):
Half-angular width (deg):

:Product: Geomagnetic Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Jun 13 2205 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 12 Jun 016
Estimated Ap 13 Jun 020
Predicted Ap 14 Jun-16 Jun 015-012-012

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun
Active                20/35/35
Minor storm           35/20/20
Moderate storm        20/05/05
Strong-Extreme storm  05/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 14 Jun - 16 Jun
             Jun 14    Jun 15    Jun 16
00-03UT        4.67      2.67      2.67      
03-06UT        3.67      3.00      3.67      
06-09UT        2.67      3.67      2.67      
09-12UT        2.67      3.00      2.67      
12-15UT        1.67      2.67      2.67      
15-18UT        1.67      1.67      1.67      
18-21UT        2.67      1.67      1.67      
21-00UT        2.67      2.00      2.67 

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Jun 14 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected the continued influence of a negative
polarity CH HSS, with some lingering CME enhancements early in the
period. Total field strength reached 7 nT, and the Bz component varied
between +/-5 nT. Solar wind speeds gradually decreased from a peak near
625 km/s early in the period to a low of around 475 km/s by the end of
the period.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to remain mildly enhanced over
14-15 Jun under continued, but waning -CH HSS influences. An additional
enhancement is likely on 16 Jun due to the anticipated glancing-blow
arrival of a CME from 12 Jun.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet to unsettled levels, with an
isolated active period, under -CH HSS and CME influences.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels,
with a chance for active conditions, on 14-15 Jun as -CH HSS influences
slowly diminish. Periods of active conditions are likely on 16 Jun due
to the anticipated glancing-blow arrival of a CME that left the Sun on
12 Jun.

Lead Time: 64.48 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M SWAO) on 2026-06-13T03:31Z

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